Recruiting event tools

Model

Deterministic scenario calculator using workbook-carried gender, event, and current-mark level thresholds plus fixed improvement-rate assumptions.

Evidence population

No athlete-level cohort, sample size, inclusion criteria, or outcome dataset was included with the workbook. The rates are workbook carry-forward assumptions, not estimates recalculated from a disclosed population.

Derivation

The current mark is classified as Elite, Solid, or Developing from the threshold table. The matching event/level rate is applied to the current mark, then scaled for each scenario and time horizon. Conservative is 0.5× the level/event median gain, median is 1.0×, and optimistic is 1.5×. The two-year total gain is 1.7× the corresponding one-year gain to model diminishing returns.

Uncertainty

The conservative-to-optimistic span is a ±50% scenario envelope around the workbook rate. It is not a confidence interval, probability distribution, or personalized prediction.

Validation

Arithmetic parity only; predictive validation unavailable. Automated tests verify the calculator reproduces the workbook example and handles level-specific rates. No prospective or out-of-sample athlete outcome validation was supplied, so predictive accuracy and error rates are unavailable.

Version / dates

workbook-parity-v2; workbook source month 2026-07; methodology reviewed 2026-08-12.

Inputs, provenance, and validation

Inputs

Thirteen men’s teams across D1, D2, and D3, with workbook-recorded 5K-equivalent top-five average, top-runner mark, fifth-runner mark, and qualitative context.

Derivation

The sample rows and six cut points are transcribed from the July 2026 workbook. The calculator parses a submitted top-five equivalent and assigns the matching workbook band; it does not query LACCTiC or recalculate a national ranking.

Source / verification date

LACCTiC public data calibration sample carried forward from the July 2026 workbook. Source month 2026-07; reviewed 2026-08-12. Evidence status: workbook-carry-forward-not-independently-reverified.

Verification limit

The public LACCTiC site and workbook-recorded endpoint are disclosed, but row-level source records and the original calibration procedure were not packaged with this product. Current external row-by-row verification is unavailable.

Validation result

Internal consistency checked; external predictive validation unavailable. 13/13 time rows parse; 13/13 preserve top-runner ≤ top-five ≤ fifth-runner ordering. Unavailable: no labeled outcome set, accuracy measure, error rate, or current national comparison snapshot was supplied for independent validation.

Use limit

This 13-team men’s sample is a cross-division sanity check. It is not a current full national ranking and is never used as the only recruiting input.